Africa
In DistressLatest data: 2021 | Updated 2/2/2026
71.4%
76908209.1%
3.8%
$25.3B
Inflation: 15.0%
High Debt Alert
Zambia's debt-to-GDP of 71.4% exceeds the 70% high-risk threshold. Historical analysis shows a 40% probability of debt restructuring within 5 years at these levels.
Debt Service Crisis
Zambia spends 76908209.1% of government revenue on debt payments, leaving less than half for public services, infrastructure, and development. This level is widely regarded as unsustainable.
In Debt Distress
Zambia is currently classified as being in debt distress, meaning it is already experiencing difficulty meeting its debt obligations. Immediate restructuring or emergency financing may be required.
Elevated Inflation
Zambia's inflation rate of 15.0% is well above single-digit targets, raising the cost of living and complicating monetary policy decisions.
External debt by creditor type
No composition data available
No historical data available
Zambia was the first African country to default during COVID (November 2020) and spent three years negotiating restructuring. The deal reached in 2023 provides a template — and a warning about the complexity of the Common Framework.
Zambia's default stemmed from a copper price collapse, COVID shock, and years of borrowing for infrastructure. The restructuring negotiations were agonizingly slow due to creditor coordination between China, bondholders, and Paris Club. The final deal provided ~40% NPV reduction.
Zambia is the turnaround story. With restructuring complete and copper prices supportive, the country has a credible path to sustainability. We see Zambia as attractive for investors seeking frontier exposure with reduced restructuring risk. Probability of re-restructuring: <5% over 5 years.