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Uganda Debt Dashboard

Latest data: 2023 | Updated 2/2/2026

Total Debt-to-GDP

53.1%

Comfortable53.1%
Debt Service / Revenue

--

GDP Growth

6.1%

GDP (USD)

$53.9B

Inflation: 3.3%

Debt Sustainability Assessment

Total Debt / GDP
Comfortable53.1%
External Debt / GDP
Comfortable39.2%
Debt Service / Revenue
Manageable--
Inflation Rate
Comfortable3.3%
FX Reserves (months)
Comfortable4.1 mo
GDP Growth
Comfortable6.1%

Debt Composition

External debt by creditor type

No composition data available

Debt Trends Over Time

No historical data available

Country Overview

Uganda has maintained more conservative borrowing than regional peers, keeping debt-to-GDP around 50%. However, oil production delays and recent political instability have clouded the outlook.

Show the debt storyThe Debt Story

Uganda's debt strategy centered on oil — borrowing against expected petroleum revenues. With production now pushed to 2025+, the debt was accumulated but the revenue hasn't materialized. The East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) remains controversial and faces ESG-related financing challenges.

Key Risks

  • •Oil production delays — revenue assumptions may not materialize
  • •Governance concerns affecting concessional lending access
  • •Regional instability (DRC, South Sudan) affects trade

Opportunities

  • •Lower debt starting point provides buffer
  • •Agriculture sector resilience
  • •Oil production, if realized, transforms fiscal position

Ubuntu Capital View

Uganda is a 'wait and see' story. Debt is manageable today, but the trajectory depends entirely on whether oil revenues materialize. We see binary outcomes: oil success = comfortable sustainability, oil failure = slow-building stress. Current restructuring probability: <10%.

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Explore how debt restructuring, austerity, or monetary financing would affect Uganda's economy and its people.