Africa
In DistressLatest data: 2024 | Updated 2/2/2026
73.2%
--
8.9%
$14.3B
Inflation: 1.8%
High Debt Alert
Rwanda's debt-to-GDP of 73.2% exceeds the 70% high-risk threshold. Historical analysis shows a 40% probability of debt restructuring within 5 years at these levels.
In Debt Distress
Rwanda is currently classified as being in debt distress, meaning it is already experiencing difficulty meeting its debt obligations. Immediate restructuring or emergency financing may be required.
External debt by creditor type
No composition data available
No historical data available
Rwanda punches above its weight — a small, landlocked country that has achieved remarkable development outcomes through strong governance and strategic borrowing. However, the model requires continued growth to sustain elevated debt levels.
Rwanda has borrowed aggressively for development (Kigali Convention Centre, new airport, tech infrastructure) but debt remains manageable around 65% of GDP. The government has excellent relationships with multilateral creditors and maintains investment-grade-adjacent ratings.
Rwanda is a quality story at a premium price. Yields are lower than peers because governance is better. We see Rwanda as a core holding for long-term Africa exposure with lower volatility. Restructuring probability: <5%.