Africa
High RiskLatest data: 2024 | Updated 2/2/2026
68.0%
--
4.7%
$120.3B
Inflation: 4.5%
Elevated Debt Level
Kenya's debt-to-GDP of 68.0% is above the IMF's 55% prudential threshold, signalling limited fiscal buffers and increased vulnerability to external shocks.
High Distress Risk
Kenya is rated at high risk of debt distress, indicating a significant probability of being unable to meet future debt obligations without corrective policy action or external support.
External debt by creditor type
No composition data available
No historical data available
Kenya is East Africa's largest and most sophisticated economy, serving as the region's financial and tech hub. However, ambitious infrastructure spending — particularly the $5B SGR railway — combined with recurring droughts has pushed debt to uncomfortable levels.
Kenya's debt trajectory changed dramatically after 2013 when the government pivoted to commercial borrowing and Chinese bilateral loans for infrastructure. The 2024 Eurobond maturity was a key test — Kenya successfully refinanced but at a punishing 10.5% coupon, among the highest in Africa. Markets remain nervous about the 2027 and 2028 maturities totaling $2B.
Kenya is not facing imminent crisis but is walking a tightrope. The debt is manageable IF growth stays above 5% AND the government maintains fiscal discipline. We see restructuring probability at 15-20% over 5 years — elevated but not alarming. The key variable to watch is the 2027 Eurobond refinancing.